1. Is the commodity supercycle turning back upward?
- Oil seems to have bottomed. After falling to the high 20s West Texas oil is close to $50 a barrel. Latest forecasts expect a plateau around $60
- Metals are soft but not falling fast with gold just under $1300/ounce and copper about $2.17/pound.
- Coffee rising—ICO composite index up 15% this year
- Cocoa down 13% this year though up 20% over the last 4 years
2. Global growth forecast is a lackluster 3.1%-Africa slows to 1.6%
- Has Africa hit bottom at 1.6% growth? Slowdown due largely to slowdown in commodities and reduced imports by China. With oil and other commodities recovering African economies should return to above average growth.
3. Are African leaders prepared to take the policy steps necessary to liberate their economies from commodity dependence?
- UNIDO’s 2016 Industrial Development Report report discusses the nature of African industrialization and why it has not progressed further. African industrial activities ends to be resource based and has a low and decreasing percentage of global manufacturing value added.
- The Brookings Institution’s Learning to Compete project notes the virtuous circle in which productivity enables exports and exports raise productivity.
- The clear implication is that governments must implement policies that increase productivity, promote exports, and reduce dependence on natural resources.
4. The dialogue has started—time for public and private sector action!
- Africa’s role in global value chains was discussed at this year’s IMF meetings.
- EFMA Oct 13 conference on Supply Chain Risks in Emerging Markets will address challenges developing countries face in joining global supply chains.
- We need policies that support sustainable growth and private sector investments that support these policies and offer favorable risk adjusted returns.