Advansa International follows exchange rates and stock market indexes for several emerging and frontier markets. Exchange rates and stock indexes are recorded on the last trading day of the week. The tables below show changes from the last trading day of the last full week of the quarter for several key markets in Africa.
Table 1
|
STOCK MARKET INDEX TRACKER – 4TH QUARTER 2014 AFRICA |
|
| COUNTRY |
4TH QUARTER PCT CHANGE |
| GHANA-Local Currency |
1.42% |
| GHANA-US$ |
2.83% |
| KENYA-Local Currency |
-4.70% |
| KENYA-US$ |
-6.19% |
| NIGERIA-Local Currency |
-15.66% |
| NIGERIA-US$ |
-27.06% |
| SOUTH AFRICA-Local Currency |
-0.37% |
| SOUTH AFRICA-US$ |
-3.42% |
| WEST AFR. BOURSE-Local Currency |
-1.91% |
| WEST AFR. BOURSE-US$ |
-6.05% |
| MSCI AFRICA-Local Currency |
0.89% |
| MSCI AFRICA-US$ |
-2.52% |
| MSCI EMERGING MARKETS-Local Currency |
-2.10% |
| MSCI EMERGING MARKETS-US$ |
-6.97% |
| Sources: Stock exchange websites, Financial Times, Advansa International data | |
Table 2
|
4TH QUARTER 2014 EXCHANGE RATE TRACKER AFRICA |
||
| COUNTRY |
4TH QTR PCT CHG |
YTD DEC PCT CHANGE |
| CFA AREA* |
-4.14% |
-11.66% |
| GHANA |
1.41% |
-25.86% |
| KENYA |
-1.49% |
-5.08% |
| NIGERIA |
-11.40% |
-13.27% |
| SOUTH AFRICA |
-3.05% |
-9.56% |
| TANZANIA |
-2.07% |
-7.42% |
| UGANDA |
-3.88% |
-9.18% |
| Sources: Financial Times, Advansa International data | ||
*Includes most French speaking countries such as Benin, Cameroon, Cote D’ivoire, Guinea, Senegal, Togo and others
It was a rough year for emerging market stocks with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index losing 2.1% in the fourth quarter and 0.69% the full year 2014. African stock markets did better than emerging markets in Q4, though for the year the MSCI Africa index trailed emerging markets. Nigeria was the worst performer largely due to the fall in the price of oil. Its downward momentum continued into the first week of 2015 with the Global MSCI Nigeria ETF falling another 9%. Ghana was the strongest performer, up 1.42% in the 4th quarter, and 2.83% for the year.
All currencies in our table fell against the dollar in 2014, which diminishes returns (and increases losses) for foreign investors. This is partly a function of dollar strength rather than weakness of African currencies. The US economy finished the year strong and the dollar index was up from 99.1 at the end of 2013 to 102.8 at the end of 2014’s 3rd quarter. The currency depreciation also reflects the challenges to resource based emerging and frontier market economies that has persisted all year. A couple of currencies were especially weak. Ghana for example was down almost 26% in 2014. Aggressive action by the central bank, with the assistance of the IMF reversed the slide and the cedi has recovered, showing a slight gain in the fourth quarter. Nigeria’s naira showed the biggest loss of the quarter again influenced by the drop in the price of oil.
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