Tag Archives: Risk Management

Risk Management for African Private Equity

PE investments in Africa generally fall into the alternative investments group. As such they compete for a share of investors’ allocation to the alternative investments category along with frontier market regions. Our challenge as Africa-focused fund managers, consultants, and advisors is to attract more of this capital to Africa, thereby contributing to Africa’s development, and the success of our enterprises. Ultimately we would like to see African deals shed the “alternative” label.

One topic we constantly confront is the risk—both real and perceived of deals associated with Africa. It is therefore important for us to provide sound risk analysis and risk mitigation strategies to aid clients, LPs and other investors in their capital deployment decisions. Risk can be classified as political, economic (e.g. currency), and operational (e.g. supply chain).

What is the best approach for risk analysis?

Several well known rankings of world economies are a starting point for risk analysis. (see table) These include:

  • World Bank Doing Business ranking,
  • World Economic Forum Global Competitiveness Index,
  • Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index,
  • JLL Global Real Estate Transparency Index.

The highest ranked African countries are usually in the middle of these rankings.

While these rankings and the data within them are a good preliminary indicator, do they tell the whole story? How do we find the growing business based in a less attractive country, but positioned to expand into other markets? Is political risk really a deal killer or are there circumstances in which business will get done anyway? Are there industries investors should avoid even when macro indicators look promising? Our ability to address these issues should lead to more nuanced assessments of risk and guide investors to better results.

How do we mitigate risk to make deals bankable?

Can PE firms take a leadership role in risk management using a holistic approach that recognizes the link between legal, political and financial risks?

Can management teams be “coached up “ to make a deal bankable? There are a number of ways PE firms and consultants can add value to make deals more attractive. For example:

  • Improving accounting and financial management, process improvements
  • Access to training such as online compliance

Probably the most important risk mitigation tool Africa-focused PE firms have is their knowledge and experience in African markets. This local knowledge is obtained in a variety of ways. Obviously Africa based firms have local knowledge built in at least for their home country and usually for their region as well. Other firms can rely on African professional staff and on local partners on the ground who can provide useful market intelligence.

Some conclusions to share with prospective LPs and other investors:

  1. Several African markets compare favorably with other emerging/frontier markets in Latin America and Asia according to the rankings:
  • Transparency of Kenya’s real estate sector exceeds that of Chile and Ukraine.

  • Cape Verde and Liberia are less corrupt than Brazil or the Czech Republic

      2. PE firms and advisors are highly knowledgeable about the African business                    environment and have access to excellent market intelligence. This                              enables them to educate and guide the investor community in                                      making realistic assessments of risk. 

I would encourage practitioners to continue the discussion on how to improve          investors’ understanding of risk management in Africa. We welcome your                insights on this blog and elsewhere.

Your firms’ local knowledge, both in-house as well as in your networks on the ground make you the right people to guide LPs toward profitable deals.

GLOBAL RANKINGS OF KEY AFRICAN MARKETS

WEF GCI

WORLD BANK DOING BUSINESS

TRANSPARENCY INTERNATIONAL

JLL REAL ESTATE TRANSPARENCY

ALGERIA

87

156

108

ANGOLA

182

BENIN

124

155

95

BOTSWANA

64

71

35

41

BURKINA FASO

146

72

CAPE VERDE

110

129

38

COTE D’IVOIRE

99

142

108

104

ETHIOPIA

109

159

108

GABON

108

164

101

GHANA

114

108

70

85

KENYA

96

92

145

61

LESOTHO

120

100

83

LIBERIA

131

174

37

MAURITIUS

45

49

54

58

MOROCCO

70

68

90

71

MOZAMBIQUE

133

137

132

101

NAMIBIA

84

108

53

NIGERIA

127

169

136

83

RWANDA

52

56

54

80

SENEGAL

112

147

64

SOUTH AFRICA

47

74

54

SWAZILAND

111

TANZANIA

116

132

116

99

UGANDA

113

115

151

90

ZAMBIA

118

98

87

57

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EMERGING MARKET SUPPLY CHAINS–LESSONS FOR INVESTORS

In my last post I gave an overview of the issues raised at a conference on supply chain risks and opportunities. Let’s now drill down a bit to consider how US and other western companies should address these issues as they being emerging and frontier market firms into their supply chains.

DUE DILIGENCE

Prior to any investment or contracting arrangement, companies will conduct the usual financial & operational due diligence to get an understanding of the nature of their investment. In doing so they should be mindful of several concerns:

  • Have suppliers and other 3rd parties had online compliance training?
  • Banks must comply with US financial regulations and so do their suppliers. Banks and other US companies must prepare suppliers to be audited by US bank examiners.
  • US & Western companies must maintain their “social license” to operate. This requires a deliberate demonstration of corporate social responsibility and should do all they can to purge human trafficking, child labor and other human rights issues from the supply chain.

SUPPLY CHAIN RISK

  • The current approach of international insurers to risk management is to understand the interconnectivity of risk. Experts recommend managing risks holistically rather than in silos. This holistic approach recognizes how operational risks impact legal risks and financial risks.

CORRUPTION

Western executives often complain of corruption and having to pay bribes in order to do business in emerging markets. (Of course for many westerners the answers is to pay bribes—it takes two to tango!) For US companies the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act means a jail sentence if caught making inappropriate payments. Cultivate long term relationship The strategies recommended by the experts at the EFMA conference and elsewhere boil down to the following:

  • Cultivate a long term relationship with suppliers to form a basis for trust. Building trust requires playing the long game so companies should budget for the time and resources required to form a long term relationship with suppliers and other stakeholders. It takes spending time in country. The desired outcome is a local partner for the long haul.
  • Get the incentives right. This includes not only sharing financial benefits, but also providing knowledge transfer via training and collaboration.

SUPPLY CHAIN DISPUTES

  • Implement controls that encourage performance and foster a long term relationship with suppliers.
  • Choose the right jurisdiction in which to set up the business entity and to contest disputes.
  • If necessary, seek advice on how to exit a market while retaining as much value as possible, and minimizing the loss of goodwill.

INTERNATIONAL TAX PLANNING

  • The natural and quite understandable inclination of most multinationals large and small is to locate profit centers in low tax jurisdictions. Some of these low tax states are disparagingly labeled tax havens. It is also not surprising that governments around the world have pushed back against the practice now known as “Base Erosion and Profit Shifting” or BEPS. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development has been a leader in understanding the use of tax havens. Companies would be advised to consult the OECD’s guidelines on BEPS and transfer pricing and to heed the advice of tax consultants and attorneys when setting up supply chain relationships in emerging economies.
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