Category Archives: Latin America

Emerging Markets on the Sell Side -Entrepreneurs, Exporters, and their Governments

Policymakers executives and entrepreneurs in emerging and frontier markets generally want to attract capital from abroad. They want long term, job creating capital invested in sustainable enterprises.

There are four areas in which management decisions and sound policy at the government level can increase the likelihood of such an outcome.

I. TRAINING & CAPACITY BUILDING

The best investors are attracted to strong management teams and staff with the skills to maximize productivity. Emerging market companies should focus their skill building efforts in three key areas:

  1. Quality management including, for example TQM and 6 Sigma practices
  2. Innovation to help orient the company toward growth and competitiveness.
  3. Compliance with international laws and regulations against corruption as well as customers’ regulations, in financial services and other sectors.

Training organizations:

Funders:

II. INVESTORS’ DUE DILIGENCE

Prior to any investment or contracting arrangement, companies will conduct the usual financial & operational due diligence to get an understanding of the nature of their investment. In doing so they should be mindful of several concerns:

  • Have suppliers and other 3rd parties had online compliance training?
  • Banks must comply with US financial regulations and so do their suppliers. Banks and other US companies must prepare suppliers to be audited by US bank examiners.
  • US & Western companies must maintain their “social license” to operate. This requires a deliberate demonstration of corporate social responsibility and should do all they can to purge human trafficking, child labor and other human rights issues from the supply chain.

III. DEMONSTRATE VALUE OF A LOCAL PARTNER

  • Provide guidance on local procedures protocol, cultural norms and customs
  • Commitment to excellence in performance and execution
  • Commitment to strong business ethics re corruption, human rights, CSR

IV. GOVERNMENTS MUST BALANCE INVESTOR FRIENDLINESS WITH NATIONAL AND CULTURAL PRIORITIES

  • Establish clear, well documented rules of the game
  • Active participation in multilateral bodies governing global trade
  • Maintain ongoing dialogue with major trading partners
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EMERGING MARKET SUPPLY CHAINS–LESSONS FOR INVESTORS

In my last post I gave an overview of the issues raised at a conference on supply chain risks and opportunities. Let’s now drill down a bit to consider how US and other western companies should address these issues as they being emerging and frontier market firms into their supply chains.

DUE DILIGENCE

Prior to any investment or contracting arrangement, companies will conduct the usual financial & operational due diligence to get an understanding of the nature of their investment. In doing so they should be mindful of several concerns:

  • Have suppliers and other 3rd parties had online compliance training?
  • Banks must comply with US financial regulations and so do their suppliers. Banks and other US companies must prepare suppliers to be audited by US bank examiners.
  • US & Western companies must maintain their “social license” to operate. This requires a deliberate demonstration of corporate social responsibility and should do all they can to purge human trafficking, child labor and other human rights issues from the supply chain.

SUPPLY CHAIN RISK

  • The current approach of international insurers to risk management is to understand the interconnectivity of risk. Experts recommend managing risks holistically rather than in silos. This holistic approach recognizes how operational risks impact legal risks and financial risks.

CORRUPTION

Western executives often complain of corruption and having to pay bribes in order to do business in emerging markets. (Of course for many westerners the answers is to pay bribes—it takes two to tango!) For US companies the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act means a jail sentence if caught making inappropriate payments. Cultivate long term relationship The strategies recommended by the experts at the EFMA conference and elsewhere boil down to the following:

  • Cultivate a long term relationship with suppliers to form a basis for trust. Building trust requires playing the long game so companies should budget for the time and resources required to form a long term relationship with suppliers and other stakeholders. It takes spending time in country. The desired outcome is a local partner for the long haul.
  • Get the incentives right. This includes not only sharing financial benefits, but also providing knowledge transfer via training and collaboration.

SUPPLY CHAIN DISPUTES

  • Implement controls that encourage performance and foster a long term relationship with suppliers.
  • Choose the right jurisdiction in which to set up the business entity and to contest disputes.
  • If necessary, seek advice on how to exit a market while retaining as much value as possible, and minimizing the loss of goodwill.

INTERNATIONAL TAX PLANNING

  • The natural and quite understandable inclination of most multinationals large and small is to locate profit centers in low tax jurisdictions. Some of these low tax states are disparagingly labeled tax havens. It is also not surprising that governments around the world have pushed back against the practice now known as “Base Erosion and Profit Shifting” or BEPS. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development has been a leader in understanding the use of tax havens. Companies would be advised to consult the OECD’s guidelines on BEPS and transfer pricing and to heed the advice of tax consultants and attorneys when setting up supply chain relationships in emerging economies.
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Making Supply Chains Work in Emerging Markets

I recently attended the Emerging and Frontier Markets Association’s conference on Supply Chain Risks and Rewards in Emerging Markets. I have long stressed the need for developing countries to move away from the model of natural resource dependence and reorient their economies toward value added industry and join the global supply chains that are the backbone of many key industries. This was the right forum at the right time.

The stage was set with a discussion of key risk areas companies face when emerging market companies become part of their supply chain. They are:

  1. Various forms of corruption—particularly the risk of violation of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act and
  2. Working with companies that may be involved in human trafficking and other human rights violations.

Other important topics included due diligence, taxes and cyber security. These topics and others will help us understand what companies and governments in emerging markets can do to attract investment capital and join a global supply chain. The discussions also gave us some ideas on how Western companies can succeed in these markets where the opportunities are tantalizing and the risks are readily apparent. I’m looking forward to exploring the path to supply chain readiness in the blogosphere and in the real world marketplace.

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8 WAYS TO ASSESS THE IMPACT OF #AFRICAN #TECH #STARTUPS

 

I. Jobs Created

  • We of course want to know the total number of jobs created by startups. In addition we need to understand the type of jobs created and how that fits with the profile of the national labor force. What are the salary levels and how do they compare to the local statutory minimum wage? Will these startups have a significant impact on their local labor markets?

II. Capital Raised

  • Are these startups attracting new capital to Africa?
  • Are they attracting foreign capital from other African countries?
  • Are they attracting capital from within their own countries?

III. Increase in Skills and Know-How

  • Are the startups introducing new technology or management practices
  • Are skills and know-how spreading beyond the universities to the general population?

IV. Return on Capital Invested

  • Have investors in African startups experienced favorable outcomes?

V. Export Revenue Within and Outside Africa

  • Are African startups exporting?
  • Are African startups enabling exports by other companies in their home countries?

VI. Supportive of African Business

  • In what other tangible ways have these startups helped foster the growth of African businesses?
  • Training
  • Access to customers
  • Access to capital

VII. Social Impact

  • Environmental
  • Education
  • Poverty reduction
  • Financial inclusion

VIII. Intangibles

  • Inspiration – Is there a 12 year old girl in a village saying “I want to be an entrepreneur too!”
  • Positive influence on government – Is there a community of entrepreneurs who can make their voice heard in the halls of government to strengthen the entrepreneurial ecosystem?
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When Nationalization Works

McKinsey’s interview with YPF CEO provokes interesting questions about the ability of state owned companies to function in a challenging global industry and the significance of nationalization in the relationship between multinational companies and governments of their home countries.

YPF is a large Argentine oil and gas company that was acquired by Repsol in 1999 and nationalized by the government shortly thereafter. Shortly after the nationalization, President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner tapped Miguel Galuccio to run the company. In hiring Galuccio, President Kirchner went for management capability rather than political allegiance. Galuccio worked for Schlumberger and (then independent) YPF.

In the interview, Galuccio describes how he and his team created a “company DNA” which includes professionalism and integrity, a sense of national purpose, and value for the shareholders.

That McKinsey describes this as a success story and an example of strong corporate leadership suggests that nationalization does not have to mean management by political cronies, and that the public and private sectors can work together to create value for both the nation and investors.

That does not mean the company is immune to the recent drop in oil prices or that they will succeed in developing Argentina’s shale assets. However YPF’s performance stands in contrast to the apparent debacle at PDVSA in Venezuela.

Stakeholders in the new oil industries in Africa should take note.

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Major Latam Stock Index & Exchange Rate Changes in Q3-2014

Advansa International follows exchange rates and stock market indexes for several emerging and frontier markets. Exchange rates and stock indexes are recorded on the last trading day of the week. The tables below show changes from the last trading day of the last full week of the quarter for several key markets in Latin America, and the Caribbean.

Table 1 

 STOCK MARKET INDEX TRACKER 3RD QUARTER 2014

LATIN AMERICA/CARIBBEAN

COUNTRY

3RD QUARTER PCT CHANGE

ARGENTINA MERVAL-Local Currency

62.64%

ARGENTINA MERVAL-US$

59.06%

BRAZIL BOVESPA-Local Currency

7.63%

BRAZIL BOVESPA-US$

-2.07%

COLUMBIA IGBC-Local Currency

-2.76%

COLUMBIA IGBC-US$

-9.96%

JAMAICA MAIN INDEX-Local Currency

3.44%

JAMAICA MAIN INDEX-US$

2.74%

MEXICO-Local Currency

4.71%

MEXICO-US$

1.33%

MSCI LATIN AMERICA-Local Currency

5.29%

MSCI LATIN AMERICA-US$

-2.62%

MSCI EMERGING MARKETS-Local Currency

1.44%

MSCI EMERGING MARKETS-US$

-2.13%

Sources: Stock exchange websites, Financial Times, Advansa International data

Table 2

3RD QUARTER 2014 EXCHANGE RATE CHANGE

LATIN AMERICA/CARIBBEAN

COUNTRY

3RD QTR PCT CHG

YTD

SEP PCT CHANGE

ARGENTINA

-3.57%

-22.99%

BRAZIL

9.70%

-3.27%

CHILE

-8.30%

-12.69%

COLOMBIA

-7.20%

-5.31%

COSTA RICA

1.30%

-6.98%

JAMAICA

-0.69%

-5.82%

MEXICO

-3.38%

-2.95%

PERU

-3.24%

-3.87%

TRINIDAD & TOBAGO

1.19%

-0.81%

Sources: Financial Times, Advansa International data

Emerging and frontier market stocks showed mixed results as the MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose 1.44%, Latin American stocks however mostly outperformed the broader emerging markets. The MSCI Latin America Index was up 5.29%. Argentina is obviously an outlier. One school of thought says that in Argentina investors are shifting to equities and away from fixed income which has driven the stock market to an unusually high level.

On Currency front, the US Dollar index rose from 99.316 in Q2 to 100.342 in Q3. The recent strength of the US dollar makes the region’s currencies appear weaker than they actually are. Still the real rose nearly 10% as Brazilian authorities raised interest rates.

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Major African Stock Index and Exchange Rate Changes in Q2-2014

Advansa International follows exchange rates and stock market indexes for several emerging and frontier markets. Exchange rates and stock indexes are recorded on the last trading day of the week. The tables below show changes from the last trading day of the last full week of the quarter for several key markets in Africa.

Table 1 

 STOCK MARKET INDEX TRACKER 2ND QUARTER 2014

AFRICA

COUNTRY

2ND QUARTER PCT CHANGE

GHANA-Local Currency

-1.42%

GHANA-US$

-18.45%

KENYA-Local Currency

-2.78%

KENYA-US$

-3.86%

NIGERIA-Local Currency

10.06%

NIGERIA-US$

11.33%

SOUTH AFRICA-Local Currency

5.62%

SOUTH AFRICA-US$

5.32%

WEST AFR. BOURSE-Local Currency

-2.17%

WEST AFR. BOURSE-US$

-2.99%

MSCI AFRICA-Local Currency

4.25%

MSCI AFRICA-US$

3.94%

MSCI EMERGING MARKETS-Local Currency

4.44%

MSCI EMERGING MARKETS-US$

6.22%

Sources: Stock exchangewebsites, Financial Times, Advansa International data

 

Table 2

2ND QUARTER 2014 EXCHANGE RATE TRACKER

AFRICA

COUNTRY

2ND QTR PCT CHG 

 

YTD JUN PCT CHANGE 

CFA AREA*

-0.81%

-0.99%

GHANA

-17.03%

-27.12%

KENYA

-1.07%

-1.94%

NIGERIA

1.27%

-1.49%

SOUTH AFRICA

-0.30%

-1.42%

TANZANIA

-1.09%

-4.35%

UGANDA

-1.85%

-3.70%

Sources: Financial Times, Advansa International data

*Includes most French speaking countries such as Benin, Cameroon, Cote D’ivoire, Guinea, Senegal, Togo and others

The big markets–Nigeria and South Africa performed well. Both markets were up in local currency and in dollars.It appears that the long term story–the demographic boom, the growing middle class, the improved political environment in some countries–are causing investors to look past current bumps in the road.

Despite lackluster growth, South African stocks have been strong. The country remains an attractive investment destination, its stock market being the largest and most liquid in Africa.

Nigerian stocks have proven attractive to investors and Boko Haram attacks and new competition from North American shale oil have not changed anyone’s thinking so far. Most of the market activity is in the financial services sector lead by such firms as Access Capital and Guaranty Bank. Consumer goods companies such as Nigerian Brew have also showed strength. The naira actually gained a little during the quarter and remains within the narrow range that has prevailed all year.

In Ghana, currency weakness continues as the nation has sought IMF assistance to help get its accounts back toward balance. Trading activity is as usual dominated by the large consumer and financial service companies such as Fan Milk, UT Bank, and EcoBank. The stock market has weakened, reflecting caution among investors even though the economy is still growing. Could be a chance to get in the market cheap.

In fact, the current period is a possible second chance for international investors to invest in African assets at favorable prices when exchange rates make deals affordable and much of the bad news is already priced in.

 

 

 

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Major Latam Stock Index & Exchange Rate Changes in Q1-2014

 

 

Advansa International follows exchange rates and stock market indexes for several emerging and frontier markets. Exchange rates and stock indexes are recorded on the last trading day of the week. The tables below show changes from the last trading day of the last full week of the quarter for several key markets in Latin America, and the Caribbean.

Table 1 

 STOCK MARKET INDEX TRACKER 1ST QUARTER 2014

LATIN AMERICA/CARIBBEAN

COUNTRY

1ST QUARTER PCT CHANGE

ARGENTINA MERVAL-Local Currency

16.22%

ARGENTINA MERVAL-US$

-2.65%

BRAZIL BOVESPA-Local Currency

-6.02%

BRAZIL BOVESPA-US$

-0.36%

COLUMBIA IGBC-Local Currency

5.11%

COLUMBIA IGBC-US$

2.59%

JAMAICA MAIN INDEX-Local Currency

-4.12%

JAMAICA MAIN INDEX-US$

-7.07%

MEXICO-Local Currency

-6.33%

MEXICO-US$

-6.56%

MSCI LATIN AMERICA-Local Currency

-1.61%

MSCI LATIN AMERICA-US$

-4.20%

MSCI EMERGING MARKETS-Local Currency

0.79%

MSCI EMERGING MARKETS-US$

-0.23%

Sources: Stock exchangewebsites, Financial Times, Advansa International data

 

Table 2

1ST QUARTER 2014 EXCHANGE RATE CHANGE

LATIN AMERICA/CARIBBEAN

COUNTRY

1ST QTR PCT CHG

YTD

MAR PCT CHANGE

ARGENTINA

-18.87%

-18.87%

BRAZIL

5.66%

5.66%

CHILE

-4.88%

-4.88%

COLOMBIA

-2.51%

-2.51%

COSTA RICA

-8.05%

-8.05%

JAMAICA

-2.95%

-2.95%

MEXICO

0.24%

0.24%

PERU

-0.91%

-0.91%

TRINIDAD & TOBAGO

0.47%

0.47%

Sources: Financial Times, Advansa International data

In the Americas as in Africa the correction in emerging markets has become clearly visible in the 1st quarter of 2014. The MSCI Latin America index lost 1.6% and several currencies lost value, with Argentina being the standout due to continued high inflation. Exports of commodities played a bigger role in Latin America’s growth story than in other regions. Consequently, declining exports to Asia have put pressure on the trade balances of the big exporters like Argentina and Peru. Rising interest rates have helped the Brazilian real recover from previous losses but slow growth has contributed to lower stock prices. The long term outlook among investors is optimistic, with the length and depth of China’s economic slowdown being a major risk factor. Long term growth can resume if the future brings:

  • Political reform or even change of governments in some of the more volatile countries.
  • Adopting policies that enhance the region’s human capital (i.e. promoting education and entrepreneurship) and position their societies to enter high value industries that are more inclusive, and less dependent on undependable commodity prices.

 

 

 

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Major African Stock Index and Exchange Rate Changes in Q1-2014

 

 

 

Advansa International follows exchange rates and stock market indexes for several emerging and frontier markets. Exchange rates and stock indexes are recorded on the last trading day of the week. The tables below show changes from the last trading day of the last full week of the quarter for several key markets in Africa.

Table 1 

 STOCK MARKET INDEX TRACKER 1ST QUARTER 2014

AFRICA

COUNTRY

1ST QUARTER PCT CHANGE

GHANA-Local Currency

11.37%

GHANA-US$

-0.80%

KENYA-Local Currency

1.76%

KENYA-US$

0.88%

NIGERIA-Local Currency

-4.72%

NIGERIA-US$

-7.45%

SOUTH AFRICA-Local Currency

0.48%

SOUTH AFRICA-US$

3.68%

WEST AFR. BOURSE-Local Currency

5.07%

WEST AFR. BOURSE-US$

4.88%

MSCI AFRICA-Local Currency

3.80%

MSCI AFRICA-US$

0.33%

MSCI EMERGING MARKETS-Local Currency

0.79%

MSCI EMERGING MARKETS-US$

-0.23%

Sources: Stock exchangewebsites, Financial Times, Advansa International data

 

Table 2

1ST QUARTER 2014 EXCHANGE RATE TRACKER

AFRICA

COUNTRY

1ST QTR PCT CHG

YTD

MAR PCT CHANGE

CFA AREA*

-0.18%

-0.18%

GHANA

-12.16%

-12.16%

KENYA

-0.88%

-0.88%

NIGERIA

-2.73%

-2.73%

SOUTH AFRICA

-1.12%

-1.12%

TANZANIA

-3.30%

-3.30%

UGANDA

-1.88%

-1.88%

Sources: Financial Times, Advansa International data

*Includes most French speaking countries such as Benin, Cameroon, Cote D’ivoire, Guinea, Senegal, Togo and others

2014 marks a change in investor sentiment towards the emerging and frontier markets. We see a shift from the mad rush into EMs of the past 3-4 years to people wondering if all the emerging market hype is a bit overblown. The announcement of tapering by the US Fed in 2013 was the trigger. In Africa the new outlook is manifest in continued currency weakness and retrenchment in several key stock indexes.

Every currency in our table lost ground in the first quarter. This is in spite of monetary tightening and rising interest rates across the board. Indeed, monetary policy in most of these markets has been fairly rational. On the fiscal side, however governments are finding it difficult to control spending. These are countries with young populations climbing out of poverty. They are at a developmental stage that demands rapid growth and are under tremendous political pressure to deliver social services and better infrastructure, all of which leads to deficits in the trade and fiscal accounts.

Ghana is a conspicuous example among this group. We see from the tables that Ghanaian stocks performed quite well while the currency was the weakest among prominent African economies. Many companies are performing well and investors anticipate future growth so stock prices are rising. However the trade benefits of the nascent oil sector have not materialized and have in fact generated additional imports as production ramps up. Thus the trade balance deteriorates. The resulting inflation on top of politically driven spending increases puts downward pressure on the cedi.

Yet it is these same characteristics that make the emerging markets such as Ghana attractive to investors. Among the larger markets that attract most of the trading volume, the currency issue is not as urgent. If this is a short term correction and if governments and investors don’t panic, then the long term trends will continue to imply growth and favorable investment outcomes.

 

 

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EMERGING MARKET INVESTING PART III – 5 KEY TAKEAWAYS FOR THE ENTERPRISE

For managers and entrepreneurs seeking private investment to fund an enterprise, the current environment is challenging, though still an improvement compared to prior decades. In Part III of our series, we offer 5 takeaways from 2013. These are concepts that are particularly appropriate to current market conditions and sensible in any period in the cycle.

1. Be mindful of the investing environment. We recall from Part I that private equity activity was down somewhat in 2013. Deals were down 7% and fundraising down 19% from the previous year. We know that the BRICS and other emerging economies have slowed down. So for the time being at least the emerging markets have lost some of their luster. All this has affected investor’s attitudes. Yet the long term outlook still looks good which is the message we stick to and the reason emerging economies still attract investor interest.

2. Owners and management should have a realistic understanding of the value of their enterprise, and where it fits into the spectrum of potential investments. They should also have thought through carefully their mission and objectives for the enterprise, for themselves, and for their communities.

3. Demonstrate the strength of the business model including evidence that the business or project can provide consistent cash flow. Examples include:

  • Signed contracts for current and future sales
  • For housing developments, a significant proportion of homes pre-sold either to residents or a large employer buying for its staff.
  • Offtake agreements for energy and power projects
  • Infrastructure projects that can collect tolls or user fees

4. Government support never hurts. Although most developing countries have improved business and political climates, they are still relatively difficult places to do business. It is therefore desirable to be on good terms with the relevant government bodies so. When everyone’s interests are aligned the red tape can be minimized.

The extent to which government backing is needed varies with the type of deal. For small startups it may not be necessary at all. In some cases the government is the customer then of course the company must be in a position to win a contract. In lieu of a contract, an MOU or government guarantee may be sufficient.

It should be noted that while government support is crucial, companies should avoid any activity that can be construed as corrupt as it will be an immediate turnoff to the investor. US investors are especially wary of running afoul of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act. Any investor not appropriately concerned is probably one to avoid.

5. Strength of the management team. Investors look for relevant experience, a level of professionalism and an understanding of international performance standards. Most important, management and founders/owners should be prepared to act in the interest of building the value of the enterprise.

Current market conditions in emerging market PE investing indicate a plateau in deal growth. In this environment founders/owners should pay special attention to those factors that attract good investors. We think this is a short term phenomenon—a sensible pullback from the emerging market fever of the past few years. However the broader demographic, economic and geopolitical trends will continue to favor emerging markets in the long run. We believe capital will flow towards companies that have strengthened their foundations during the current slowdown.

 

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