Major Latam Stock Index & Exchange Rate Changes in Q1-2014

 

 

Advansa International follows exchange rates and stock market indexes for several emerging and frontier markets. Exchange rates and stock indexes are recorded on the last trading day of the week. The tables below show changes from the last trading day of the last full week of the quarter for several key markets in Latin America, and the Caribbean.

Table 1 

 STOCK MARKET INDEX TRACKER 1ST QUARTER 2014

LATIN AMERICA/CARIBBEAN

COUNTRY

1ST QUARTER PCT CHANGE

ARGENTINA MERVAL-Local Currency

16.22%

ARGENTINA MERVAL-US$

-2.65%

BRAZIL BOVESPA-Local Currency

-6.02%

BRAZIL BOVESPA-US$

-0.36%

COLUMBIA IGBC-Local Currency

5.11%

COLUMBIA IGBC-US$

2.59%

JAMAICA MAIN INDEX-Local Currency

-4.12%

JAMAICA MAIN INDEX-US$

-7.07%

MEXICO-Local Currency

-6.33%

MEXICO-US$

-6.56%

MSCI LATIN AMERICA-Local Currency

-1.61%

MSCI LATIN AMERICA-US$

-4.20%

MSCI EMERGING MARKETS-Local Currency

0.79%

MSCI EMERGING MARKETS-US$

-0.23%

Sources: Stock exchangewebsites, Financial Times, Advansa International data

 

Table 2

1ST QUARTER 2014 EXCHANGE RATE CHANGE

LATIN AMERICA/CARIBBEAN

COUNTRY

1ST QTR PCT CHG

YTD

MAR PCT CHANGE

ARGENTINA

-18.87%

-18.87%

BRAZIL

5.66%

5.66%

CHILE

-4.88%

-4.88%

COLOMBIA

-2.51%

-2.51%

COSTA RICA

-8.05%

-8.05%

JAMAICA

-2.95%

-2.95%

MEXICO

0.24%

0.24%

PERU

-0.91%

-0.91%

TRINIDAD & TOBAGO

0.47%

0.47%

Sources: Financial Times, Advansa International data

In the Americas as in Africa the correction in emerging markets has become clearly visible in the 1st quarter of 2014. The MSCI Latin America index lost 1.6% and several currencies lost value, with Argentina being the standout due to continued high inflation. Exports of commodities played a bigger role in Latin America’s growth story than in other regions. Consequently, declining exports to Asia have put pressure on the trade balances of the big exporters like Argentina and Peru. Rising interest rates have helped the Brazilian real recover from previous losses but slow growth has contributed to lower stock prices. The long term outlook among investors is optimistic, with the length and depth of China’s economic slowdown being a major risk factor. Long term growth can resume if the future brings:

  • Political reform or even change of governments in some of the more volatile countries.
  • Adopting policies that enhance the region’s human capital (i.e. promoting education and entrepreneurship) and position their societies to enter high value industries that are more inclusive, and less dependent on undependable commodity prices.

 

 

 

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