Major African Stock Indexes and Exchange Rate Changes in Q4-2013

Advansa International follows exchange rates and stock market indexes for several emerging and frontier markets. Exchange rates and stock indexes are recorded on the last trading day of the week. The tables below show changes from the last trading day of the last full week of the quarter for several key markets in Africa.

Table 1 

 STOCK MARKET INDEX TRACKER 4TH QUARTER 2013

AFRICA

COUNTRY

4TH QUARTER PCT CHANGE

GHANA-Local Currency

6.07%

GHANA-US$

-1.76%

KENYA-Local Currency

2.49%

KENYA-US$

3.24%

NIGERIA-Local Currency

10.41%

NIGERIA-US$

9.98%

SOUTH AFRICA-Local Currency

3.10%

SOUTH AFRICA-US$

-0.72%

WEST AFR. BOURSE-Local Currency

12.88%

WEST AFR. BOURSE-US$

14.62%

MSCI AFRICA-Local Currency

3.80%

MSCI AFRICA-US$

0.33%

MSCI EMERGING MARKETS-Local Currency

0.79%

MSCI EMERGING MARKETS-US$

-0.23%

Sources: Stock exchangewebsites, Financial Times, Advansa International data

Table 2

4TH QUARTER 2013 EXCHANGE RATE TRACKER

AFRICA

COUNTRY

4TH QTR PCT CHG

YTD

DEC PCT CHANGE

CFA AREA*

1.74%

4.21%

GHANA

-7.82%

-19.39%

KENYA

0.76%

0.12%

NIGERIA

-0.44%

-2.80%

SOUTH AFRICA

-3.82%

-19.08%

TANZANIA

1.83%

-0.19%

UGANDA

2.52%

7.31%

Sources: Financial Times, Advansa International data

*Includes most French speaking countries such as Benin, Cameroon, Cote D’ivoire, Guinea, Senegal, Togo and others

The African story in the fourth quarter was one of strong stock markets but weak currencies. The MSCI Africa index increased by 3.80% in local currency, compared with the MSCI Emerging markets index which was up .79%. However in dollars the Africa index was virtually unchanged at .33%, though still a bit better than the Emerging Markets Index which was down .23%. All the major stock markets were up in local currency. Nigeria was the big winner gaining over 10% (and almost 10% in dollars). Among smaller markets the West Africa Bourse (WAB) gained almost 13%. Because the Euro-linked CFA franc was strong the West Africa Bourse gained almost 15% in dollars. The Ghana Stock Exchange continued its upward march however the cedi continued to weaken wiping out the gains for dollar based investors. Again the financial sector led the way with Ecobank, UT Financial and Cal Bank Ltd. among the volume leaders. The Nigerian and Kenyan markets were also strong, rising 20% and 19% respectively.

The trend is more pronounced when looking at the full year results. All the major stock markets were in weak currency countries except the WAB. The Ghana cedi continues to decline. The economic fundamentals such as rising inflation and current account deficits continue. The Reserve Bank of South Africa continues a loose monetary stance, weakening the rand. In the current market it is wise to recognize the strong performance of individual listed companies, regardless of the macro conditions that impact national economic indicators.

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