Monthly Archives: May 2013

Major African Stock Indexes and Exchange Rate Changes in Q1-2013

Advansa International follows exchange rates and stock market indexes for several emerging and frontier markets. Exchange rates and stock indexes are recorded on the last trading day of the week. The tables below show changes from the last trading day of the last full week of the quarter for several key markets in Africa.

Table 1 

STOCK MARKET INDEX TRACKER – 1ST QUARTER 2013

AFRICA

COUNTRY 1ST QUARTER PCT CHANGE
GHANAL-Local Currency

45.88%

GHANA-US$

44.28%

KENYA-Local Currency

17.92%

KENYA-US$

18.56%

NIGERIA-Local Currency

20.32%

NIGERIA-US$

18.74%

SOUTH AFRICA-Local Currency

1.21%

SOUTH AFRICA-US$

-6.37%

WEST AFRICA BOURSE-Local Currency

15.87%

WEST AFRICA BOURSE-US$

12.99%

MSCI AFRICA-Local Currency

-1.33%

MSCI AFRICA-US$

-8.38%

MSCI EMERGING MARKETS-Local Currency

-0.74%

MSCI EMERGING MARKETS-US$

-1.92%

Sources: Stock exchange websites, Financial Times, Advansa International data

Table 2

1ST QUARTER 2013 EXCHANGE RATE CHANGE

AFRICA

COUNTRY 1ST QTR PCT CHG YTD MAR PCT CHANGE
CFA AREA*

-2.87%

-4.05%

GHANA

-1.60%

1.38%

KENYA

0.64%

1.51%

NIGERIA

-1.61%

-3.32%

SOUTH AFRICA

-7.58%

2.17%

TANZANIA

-2.41%

-5.66%

UGANDA

5.24%

5.24%

Sources: Financial Times, Advansa International data

*Includes most French speaking countries such as Benin , Cameroon , Cote D’ivoire , Guinea , Senegal , Togo and others

The MSCI Africa index decreased by 1.33% for Q1, compared with the MSCI Emerging markets index which was down 0.74%. Several country stock markets were quite strong. Ghana was the star this period rising 46% for the quarter in local currency and 44% in US dollars. The strong performance was driven largely by the financial sector with Ecobank, Standard Chartered and Ghana Commercial Bank leading the way. The Nigerian and Kenyan markets were also strong, rising 20% and 19% respectively.

Exchange rates have continued the pattern established late last year.. Fiscal and current account deficits continue to put downward pressure on the Ghanaian cedi. The South African rand has weakened significantly this quarter. With the economy growing slowly the Reserve Bank is likely to maintain a looser monetary stance which suggests a weaker rand. The CFA franc lost ground as the euro declined slightly. Generally speaking currency changes have been relatively small in either direction in the major African economies, South Africa being the exception due to an active central bank trying to rev up a stagnant economy.

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Major Latam & Caribbean Stock Indexes and Exchange Rate Changes in Q1-2013

Advansa International follows exchange rates and stock market indexes for several emerging and frontier markets. Exchange rates and stock indexes are recorded on the last trading day of the week. The tables below show changes from the last trading day of the last full week of the quarter for several key markets in Latin America, and the Caribbean.

Table 1

STOCK MARKET INDEX TRACKER – 1ST QUARTER 2013

LATIN AMERICA/CARIBBEAN

COUNTRY 1ST QUARTER PCT CHANGE
ARGENTINA MERVAL-Local Currency

18.36%

ARGENTINA MERVAL-US$

14.31%

BRAZIL BOVESPA-Local Currency

-7.55%

BRAZIL BOVESPA-US$

-6.16%

COLOMBIA IGBC-Local Currency

-3.94%

COLOMBIA IGBC-US$

-7.26%

JAMAICA MAIN INDEX-Local Currency

-11.34%

JAMAICA MAIN INDEX-US$

-17.00%

MEXICO-Local Currency

0.81%

MEXICO-US$

6.05%

MSCI LATIN AMERICA-Local Currency

-1.55%

MSCI LATIN AMERICA-US$

0.40%

MSCI EMERGING MARKETS-Local Currency

-0.74%

MSCI EMERGING MARKETS-US$

-1.92%

Sources: Stock exchange websites, Financial Times, Advansa International data

1ST QUARTER 2013 EXCHANGE RATE CHANGE

LATIN AMERICA/CARIBBEAN

COUNTRY 1ST QTR PCT CHG YTD MAR PCT CHANGE
ARGENTINA

-4.05%

-4.05%

BRAZIL

1.38%

1.38%

CHILE

1.51%

1.51%

COLOMBIA

-3.32%

-3.32%

COSTA RICA

2.17%

2.17%

JAMAICA

-5.66%

-5.66%

MEXICO

5.24%

5.24%

PERU

-1.60%

-1.60%

TRINIDAD & TOBAGO

0.08%

0.08%

Sources: Financial Times, Advansa International data

Table 1 shows 2012 stock market returns for several markets through March 29 2013. While MSCI index for the region was nearly unchanged, there were noticeable gains and losses in several countries. These were consistent with the economic performance of the the larger countries. The Bovespa in Brazil was down as Brazil’s economy has slowed down while the Mexican exchange is up reflecting that country’s recent growth as well as the possibility of reforms by the new administration.

Currency movements also were influenced by economic growth or lack thereof as well as governments’ ability to manage inflation. Brazil’s real was up slightly during Q1. In Argentina inflation has continued to depress the peso.

Mexico has managed to maintain a strong peso even with short term interest rates falling, suggesting increased confidence in the government’s ability to maintain price and monetary stability.

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