Major African Stock Indexes and Exchange Rate Changes in Q4

Advansa International follows exchange rates and stock market indexes for several emerging and frontier markets. Exchange rates and stock indexes are recorded on the last trading day of the week. The tables below show changes from the last trading day of the last full week of the quarter for several key markets in Africa.

Table 1 

 STOCK MARKET INDEX TRACKER 4TH QUARTER 2012

AFRICA

COUNTRY

4TH QUARTER PCT CHANGE

GHANA-Local Currency

13.42%

GHANA-US$

12.91%

KENYA-Local Currency

3.78%

KENYA-US$

2.91%

NIGERIA-Local Currency

7.13%

NIGERIA-US$

7.93%

SOUTH AFRICA-Local Currency

10.14%

SOUTH AFRICA-US$

7.95%

WEST AFR. BOURSE-Local Currency

11.38%

WEST AFR. BOURSE-US$

14.15%

MSCI AFRICA-Local Currency

7.87%

MSCI AFRICA-US$

5.30%

MSCI EMERGING MARKETS-Local Currency

4.94%

MSCI EMERGING MARKETS-US$

5.24%

Sources: Stock exchangewebsites, Financial Times, Advansa International data

 

Table 2

4TH QUARTER 2012 EXCHANGE RATE TRACKER

AFRICA

COUNTRY

4TH QTR PCT CHG

YTD

DEC PCT CHANGE

CFA AREA*

2.77%

1.84%

GHANA

-0.50%

-14.00%

KENYA

-0.87%

-1.10%

NIGERIA

0.80%

4.04%

SOUTH AFRICA

-2.69%

-4.79%

TANZANIA

-0.32%

0.06%

UGANDA

-4.84%

-7.64%

Sources: Financial Times, Advansa International data

*Includes most French speaking countries such as Benin , Cameroon , Cote D’ivoire , Guinea , Senegal , Togo and others

 

Equity market performance in Africa showed considerable variation from country to country during Q3. Table 1 shows 2012 stock market returns for several markets through the end of September. The Nigerian Stock exchange was the standout with a 20.43% increase. Nigeria’s improved performance was largely due to institutional reasons. Regulatory enhancements instituted after the 2008 crash resulted in greater confidence in the market.

The MSCI Africa index increased by 7.9% for Q4, compared with the MSCI Emerging markets index which was up 4.9%. (Both indexes rose by more than 5% in US Dollar terms) All African markets tracked here finished the quarter higher than when they began, both in local currency and in US Dollar terms.

The currency picture was somewhat mixed in the 4th quarter. Continued high imports in Ghana lead to gradual depreciation of the cedi however the currency’s fall was not enough to deter investors. Not only was the stock market. Strong, but an analyst at Emos Consultancy informs us that investors have shown interest in the 3 year treasury bond indicating a level of confidence in the central bank’s management of the economy.

South Africa has consistently tried to prevent the rand from rising too much in order to maintain export competitiveness. The country’s policy makers will likely continue a relatively loose monetary stance not only to promote exports but also as a form of economic stimulus.

The CFA franc’s rise reflects the euro’s strength against the dollar.

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