Monthly Archives: December 2012

Ghana Financial Markets 3rd Quarter Results

Flag of Ghana

We’ve just received from Emos Consultancy the monthly newsletters from National Trust Holding Company (NTHC), one of Ghana’s largest financial firms. In addition to stock market activity on the Ghana Stock Exchange, NTHC also covers activity in the debt markets, including short term treasury bills and longer term (up to 5 years) government bonds. Although volume is very light in the bond markets they are a good indication of trends in Ghanaian monetary policy.

The equity market recorded record share volume in September driven by heavy trading in Ecobank Transnational Incorporated.

Newsletter, July2012

Newsletter, August2012

Newsletter, September2012

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Major Latam & Caribbean Stock Indexes and Exchange Rate Changes in Q3

Advansa International follows exchange rates and stock market indexes for several emerging and frontier markets. Exchange rates and stock indexes are recorded on the last trading day of the week. The tables below show changes from the last trading day of the last full week of the quarter for several key markets in Latin America, and the Caribbean.

Table 1 

 STOCK MARKET INDEX TRACKER 3RD QUARTER 2012

LATIN AMERICA/CARIBBEAN

COUNTRY

3RD QUARTER PCT CHANGE

ARGENTINA MERVAL-Local Currency

1.35%

ARGENTINA MERVAL-US$

-2.22%

BRAZIL BOVESPA-Local Currency

8.87%

BRAZIL BOVESPA-US$

8.36%

COLUMBIA IGBC-Local Currency

4.76%

COLUMBIA IGBC-US$

3.87%

JAMAICA MAIN INDEX-Local Currency

-0.23%

JAMAICA MAIN INDEX-US$

-1.66%

MEXICO-Local Currency

1.66%

MEXICO-US$

6.08%

MSCI LATIN AMERICA-Local Currency

3.19%

MSCI LATIN AMERICA-US$

4.35%

MSCI EMERGING MARKETS-Local Currency

5.14%

MSCI EMERGING MARKETS-US$

6.97%

Sources: Stock exchange websites, Financial Times, Advansa International data

Table 2

3RD QUARTER 2012 EXCHANGE RATE CHANGE

LATIN AMERICA/CARIBBEAN

COUNTRY

3RD QTR PCT CHG

YTD SEPT PCT CHANGE

ARGENTINA

-3.57%

-8.26%

BRAZIL

-0.51%

-8.06%

CHILE

5.85%

9.46%

COLOMBIA

-0.89%

7.64%

COSTA RICA

0.04%

2.80%

JAMAICA

-1.43%

-3.67%

MEXICO

4.42%

8.54%

PERU

2.62%

3.85%

TRINIDAD & TOBAGO

0.00%

-0.12%

Sources: Financial Times, Advansa International data

Table 1 shows 2012 stock market returns for several markets through the end of September. The Bovespa in Brazil showed the greatest strength, up by over 8% both in US$ Dollars and the local Reais. Some central banks such as in Brazil and Colombia are sensitive to their currencies being overvalued which threatens export competitiveness. Deliberate weakening of these currencies depressed dollar returns in their equity markets. Meanwhile, fundamental weakness in some countries like Jamaica tended to depress the local currency. The Mexican peso on the other hand, due to low inflation and strong export performance was strong throughout the year including the most recent quarter.

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Major African Stock Indexes and Exchange Rate Changes in Q3

Advansa International follows exchange rates and stock market indexes for several emerging and frontier markets. Exchange rates and stock indexes are recorded on the last trading day of the week. The tables below show changes from the last trading day of the last full week of the quarter for several key markets in Africa.

Table 1 

 STOCK MARKET INDEX TRACKER 3RD QUARTER 2012

AFRICA

COUNTRY

3RD QUARTER PCT CHANGE

GHANA-Local Currency

0.21%

GHANA-US$

2.62%

KENYA-Local Currency

7.24%

KENYA-US$

6.01%

NIGERIA-Local Currency

20.43%

NIGERIA-US$

23.92%

SOUTH AFRICA-Local Currency

6.08%

SOUTH AFRICA-US$

5.20%

WEST AFR. BOURSE-Local Currency

0.06%

WEST AFR. BOURSE-US$

1.44%

MSCI AFRICA-Local Currency

7.74%

MSCI AFRICA-US$

7.02%

MSCI EMERGING MARKETS-Local Currency

5.14%

MSCI EMERGING MARKETS-US$

6.97%

Sources: Stock exchangewebsites, Financial Times, Advansa International data

Table 2

3RD QUARTER 2012 EXCHANGE RATE TRACKER

AFRICA

COUNTRY

3RD QTR PCT CHG

YTD SEPT PCT CHANGE

CFA AREA*

1.38%

-0.90%

GHANA

2.40%

-13.57%

KENYA

-1.23%

-0.23%

NIGERIA

3.50%

3.21%

SOUTH AFRICA

-0.88%

-2.15%

TANZANIA

-0.25%

0.38%

UGANDA

-3.13%

-2.94%

Sources: Financial Times, Advansa International data

*Includes most French speaking countries such as Benin , Cameroon , Cote D’ivoire , Guinea , Senegal , Togo and others

Equity market performance in Africa showed considerable variation from country to country during Q3. Table 1 shows 2012 stock market returns for several markets through the end of September. The Nigerian Stock exchange was the standout with a 20.43% increase. Nigeria’s improved performance was largely due to institutional reasons. Regulatory enhancements instituted after the 2008 crash resulted in greater confidence in the market.

The MSCI Africa index increased by 7.7% for Q3, compared with the MSCI Emerging markets index which was up 5.1%. (Both indexes rose 7% in US Dollar terms) All African markets tracked here finished the quarter higher than when they began, both in local currency and in US Dollar terms. Ghana and the West Africa Bourse were up slightly.

During the 3rd quarter and on a year to date basis the Nigerian Naira showed the greatest strength of the currencies shown in our charts (See Table 2) The Ghanaian central bank halted the precipitous slide of the Cedi, rising 2.4% during the quarter, though it remains nearly 14% weaker since the beginning of 2012.

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Ghana Stock Market – 1st Half Review

Our friends at Emos Consultancy in Accra, Ghana have sent us First Atlantic Brokers’ review of the performance of the Ghana Stock Exchange  for the First half of 2012. It highlights the impact of rising interest rates in response to a depreciating currency.  The report also tells us which stocks are benefiting from Ghana’s recent entry into the oil producers’ club. Both portfolio and private investors should take note of the trends in Ghana’s economy that impact the energy, infrastructure and housing sectors. Click this link to see the report:

GSE Half Year Market Report